In the first half of 2025, terrorist attacks were recorded in several European cities, with around ten fatalities in total. Following Israel’s strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and U.S. support for those actions, the risk has increased of new attacks by lone actors and of pro-Iranian cyber activities in the near term.

Question for AI: In July 2025, will terrorist attacks in European and U.S. cities result in more than 10 casualties?

AI answer: NO. Probability 40%

In 2025, drug trafficking intensified, especially cocaine smuggling from the Andes toward Northern Europe. In the first half of 2025, more than 16 tons of cocaine were seized in Europe.

Question for AI: By the end of 2025, will at least one cocaine shipment weighing more than one metric ton be seized?

AI answer: YES. Probability 75%

The most recent fatal attack on a senior political official occurred in Colombia on June 7, 2025. Last year, attempted assassinations of Donald Trump and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico were recorded.

Question for AI: By the end of 2025, will an assassination with a fatal outcome target a president or prime minister of any country?

AI answer: NO. Probability 5%