U.S.–Russia relations have been marked by crisis in recent years, especially after the Russia–Ukraine conflict; after February 2023, political contacts between Russia and the United States were reduced to a minimum. Following the election of Donald Trump as U.S. president, attempts were renewed to deepen political ties with Russia in order to address the Ukraine crisis.

Question for AI: In 2025, will the presidents of the United States and Russia hold a meeting?

AI answer: YES. Probability 85%

After Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, Israel launched an offensive in Gaza that has so far claimed more than 60,000 lives. The conflict has heightened tensions across the region and led to clashes between Israel and Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran, with Israel conducting military operations in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Yemen.

Question for AI: In the second half of 2025, will Israel carry out another attack on a foreign country?

AI answer: YES. Probability 80%

The last confirmed explosive nuclear test was conducted in September 2017 in North Korea. Some states have carried out tests without a chain reaction. North Korea has repeatedly signaled readiness for a seventh nuclear test.

Question for AI: By the end of 2025, will any country conduct an explosive test of a nuclear bomb?

AI answer: NO. Probability 25%